What if I replace my ball on an estimated spot and it turns out to be wrong?

No penalty — your reasonable estimate is accepted even if it later turns out to be wrong. Rule 1.3b(2) protects you as long as you did everything reasonably expected to pick the right spot.

This comes up most often on the putting green: you mark and lift your ball, then when replacing it you can't find the exact original spot and must estimate. If video or a playing partner later shows your replacement was a few inches off, you're still protected — see what happens if your ball moves after you mark it for that specific scenario.

How the rule works

When a Rule asks you to estimate a spot — like where your ball lay before it moved, or where it crossed the edge of a penalty area — you make your best judgment. If you do all that can be reasonably expected under the circumstances to be prompt and accurate, that estimate is final. Even if video replay or a playing partner later shows the spot was a few inches off, you don't get penalized and you don't have to correct it.

What "reasonably expected" means

You're not held to perfection. The standard is what a reasonable player would do in that moment: look at the available evidence, ask anyone who saw it, and pick the spot honestly. If you rush, guess wildly, or ignore obvious clues, you lose the protection. But a genuine, careful estimate made on the course is good enough — the Rules don't demand laser precision in real time.

Common situations where this applies

You mark and lift your ball on the green, then can't find the exact mark when replacing. You estimate where your ball crossed into a penalty area. Your ball moves and you have to replace it on its original spot but the lie has changed. In all these cases, your honest best guess stands. Play on.

Exceptions that change the answer

• You realize the estimate was wrong before making the next stroke → You can correct it without penalty — just move the ball to the better spot.
• You deliberately pick a wrong spot to gain an advantage → That's not a reasonable estimate; it's cheating. You get the general penalty (two strokes in stroke play, loss of hole in match play) under Rule 1.2a.

Frequently asked questions

What if my playing partner disagrees with my estimated spot?

Your reasonable judgment still stands. You can discuss it, but you're not required to accept their view. If you honestly did your best to estimate correctly, the Rules back you even if others think you're off.

Does video evidence override my estimate?

No. Rule 1.3b(2) explicitly says your reasonable estimate is accepted even if later proven wrong by video or other technology. The Rules protect on-course judgment.

What if I estimate the spot, play the ball, then realize I was way off?

If you did all that was reasonably expected at the time, there's no penalty. You continue with the ball as played. The protection applies even after the stroke.

Can I use this rule to guess a spot I never actually saw?

No. You must base your estimate on information reasonably available — what you saw, what others saw, marks on the ground. A pure guess with no basis isn't "reasonable" and isn't protected.

Does this apply to estimating distances too, like for dropping?

Yes. Rule 1.3b(2) covers estimating any spot, point, line, area, or distance. Your reasonable judgment on a drop zone or relief area is protected the same way.